‍Starting a love affair is easy, getting out tough

‍Afghanistan: “We are coming very close to a decision. Stay the course”

‍“We are awaiting orders. In the meantime, carry on!”

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‍2018: No one said it would get better

‍New President, new strategy: “R4+S”

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‍Close of 2011: 90,000 troops left

‍Close of 2012: 68,000 troops left

‍2013: Mission consists of training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces.

‍Spring 2013: Afghan forces fully responsible for security

‍February 2014:  34,000 troop ceiling met, then shrink the numbers to 1,000 by early 2017

‍December 31, 2014: NATO mission concludes

‍2015: 10,600 US troops in Afghanistan for NATO’s Resolute and US Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, but US forces doing both

‍2016:  Raise force level from 8,400 to 14,500, maybe to 15,500

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‍The US developed plans to send additional equipment to Afghanistan, including helicopters, ground vehicles, artillery, and drones. The USAF intended to ramp up its airpower as well. 

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‍Reports in late January indicated the USAF had diverted A-10 Warthogs intended for deployment to Turkey to Kandahar and had already flown their first ground-attack combat missions. In addition, the USAF planned to send armed MQ-9 Reapers and HH-60G Pave Hawk rescue helicopters to Kandahar. 

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‍US advisors moved closer to the front lines, and these additions were needed to protect them and strike targets that threatened them. F-16 Vipers and F/A-18s also deployed to Bagram, and B-52s, F-15E Strike Eagles, and F-22s had been striking Taliban drug infrastructure targets, among others. The USAF had also deployed more KC-135 tankers to Bagram. In addition, the Afghans were flying A-29 Super Tucano light-attack aircraft.

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‍Secretary of Defense Mattis stressed on May 1, 2018, that he never promised things would get better in Afghanistan. He said, 

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‍"I don't know that that's been the message from this building, I would not subscribe to that … We said last August NATO is going to hold the line, we knew there would be tough fighting going forward."

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‍The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) released a new report in May 2018 that found Afghan army and police forces had shrunk by about 36,000 personnel over the past year. The report also found that, since August 2016, insurgents had expanded their control over parts of the country by 4 percent. About 14.5 percent of the country’s total districts were under insurgent control. Other estimates put insurgent control at 40 percent.

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‍Reports emerged that the US had about 15,500 troops in Afghanistan as of early May 2018. The Taliban were in the midst of their spring offensive.

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‍For the first time, Marine Corps F-35B Lightning aircraft launched from the USS Essex Amphibious Assault Ship on September 27, 2018, and attacked a Taliban target in Afghanistan.

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‍As of the end of November, 13 American troops were killed in 2018 in Afghanistan.

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‍Unnamed defense officials have told the press that President Trump has told DoD to begin planning to withdraw forces, perhaps down to 7,000. He was quoted,

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‍“We're there because virtually every expert that I have and speak to say if we don't go there, they're going to be fighting over here."

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‍CJCS General Dunford told troops in Afghanistan on December 24, 2018, that he had not received instructions to withdraw any forces from Afghanistan. Dunford spoke like a real leader,

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‍There’s all kinds of rumors swirling around. The mission you have today is the same as the mission you had yesterday. When there is something else to tell you, I’ll make sure Gen. Miller knows in real time what changes may be taking place. Right now, you’re American soldiers, you have a mission, just get after it.” 

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‍General Neller, Commandant of the Marine Corps, when asked what the drawdowns meant for his Marines, he said,

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‍“I have no idea. We are awaiting orders. In the meantime, carry on.”

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‍Concluding remarks: “Staying and Praying”

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‍US force levels fluctuated around 14,000 to as high as 15,500 between 2017 and 2019. They dropped to 2,500 by January 2021, and the final withdrawal occurred in August 2021.

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‍It turned out that the US negotiated and signed the Joint Declaration between the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and the United States of America for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan, otherwise known as the Doha Agreement, with the Taliban on February 29, 2020, rather than with the Afghan National Government. The US promised the Taliban a complete withdrawal by May 2021. This is what President Karzai was worried about when he learned the US was negotiating with the Taliban.

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‍The Afghan Government and the Taliban met in Doha, Qatar, in September 2020, but the talks became deadlocked.

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‍The Taliban launched a major offensive, took control of major cities and provincial capitals, and took control of Kabul and the government on August 15, 2001. The US completely withdrew on August 30, 2021, after losing 13 US military members at the Kabul airport.

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‍The US significantly reduced the possibility of terrorism against the US from Afghanistan early in the conflict. But the US did not defeat the Taliban. The Brookings Institution remarked in April 2021, that the “US approach to Afghanistan has been staying and praying.”

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‍The bitter reality by 2021 was that American strategic interests were outweighed by the costs. Andrew Doris suggested that terrorism from Afghanistan against the US posed little danger, the lives of Afghan citizens were not improving, and it seemed as though the US was fighting a war for the sake of fighting, detracting from other, more pressing problems worldwide.

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‍What strikes me following this review of events from 2011-2018 is how our leadership handled this war willy-nilly, start to finish.

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‍The US lost 2,456 killed in action in the Afghan War. By my count, the US lost 974 during the period of this report, 2011-2018.