‍Starting a love affair is easy, getting out tough

‍Afghanistan: “We are coming very close to a decision. Stay the course”

‍“We are awaiting orders. In the meantime, carry on!”

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‍2015: Two missions, NATO and anti-terror

‍Honestly, throw the original Obama plan out!

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‍Close of 2011: 90,000 troops left

‍Close of 2012: 68,000 troops left

‍2013: Mission consists of training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces.

‍Spring 2013: Afghan forces fully responsible for security

‍February 2014:  34,000 troop ceiling met, then shrink the numbers to 1,000 by early 2017

‍December 31, 2014: NATO mission concludes

‍2015: 9,800 US troops will remain for NATO’s Resolute Support Mission, a non-combat mission to advise, assist and train Afghan forces, upgraded to 10,800, about 5,400 for Resolute Support, about half for counterterrorism, called Operation Freedom’s Sentinel

‍2016:  Complete US withdrawal

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‍Operation Resolute Support, the NATO transition to a “non-combat mission in a combat environment,” began on January 1, 2015. The US worked with its allies as part of NATO's Resolute Support Mission to continue training, advising, and assisting Afghan security forces. Separately, the US also conducted its counterterrorism mission against the remnants of Al-Qaeda.

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‍General Phillip Breedlove, USAF, Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) warned,

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‍“The war in Afghanistan has not ended, (just) the combat mission for NATO. It’s hard to say, but we are going to continue to have (American) casualties. It is going to be unavoidable.”

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‍At the start of 2015, the US had about 10,600 troops in Afghanistan. Ashton Carter, President Obama’s nominee to be the next Secretary of Defense, told Congress that he would consider changing the US withdrawal plan for Afghanistan. Carter visited Kabul to discuss the troop levels in February 2015. He said,

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‍“I’m not looking for an increase in numbers … I think it’s safe to say … counterterrorism will be a continuing preoccupation and commitment of ours here … and we are discussing and rethinking the details of the counterterrorism mission and how the environment has changed here with respect to terrorism since we first laid out our plans.”

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‍U.S. officials said on March 16, 2015, that the Obama administration would no longer be cutting the number of soldiers in Afghanistan to 5,500 by the end of 2015. However, the administration did not yet know what the numbers will be. President Ghani visited the US and was leaning toward slowing down the withdrawal. There were also indications that US forces in Afghanistan, to train the Afghans, about 2,000, are actually conducting combat counter-terrorism missions in Afghanistan. It also appeared the US would want to keep the military bases at Kandahar and Jalalabad open beyond the end of 2015.

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‍The Taliban announced it intended to start its spring offensive the week of April 26, 2015. This was the first such offensive without NATO ground combat forces to oppose it. The first attacks were against the Bagram AB outside Kabul. Attacks in the north and east increased. Fighting had been underway in Helmand Province in the south for about two months. The Taliban’s problem was that, after all its fighting, it had not come any closer to taking control of the country. The sense was that the islamic State (ISIS) would try to fill that void on its own.

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‍In May 2015, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev revoked all Russian authorizations for NATO cargo to transit Russian territory to Afghanistan. The excuse used was that the UNSC resolution authorizing international forces to operate in Afghanistan expired on December 31, 2014. This effectively closed the northern NDN route in and out, which meant only the southern option to Karachi, Pakistan, or air transport was left.

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‍Colonel Brian Tribus, a US military spokesman for US forces in Afghanistan, told reporters on July 20, 2015, that the US had not yet decided on the pace of withdrawal from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. He said a decision was expected in the autumn. The growing activities by ISIS in Afghanistan were apparently a top concern.

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‍There had long been a feud between Pakistan and Afghanistan. By August 2015, President Ghani said, “War is declared against us from Pakistan territory. This, in fact, puts on display a clear hostility against a neighbor.” Masoom Stanekzai, the acting defense minister, said Pakistan is in a declared war against Afghanistan,

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‍“Allegiances are being promised to Taliban's new leader in open meetings [in Pakistan], and they [Taliban] announce at such meetings that they are continuing their war and also at such meetings, they claim responsibility for the biggest crime that recently took place in Kabul. What does this all mean? This means an undeclared war has turned into a declared war.”

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‍By September 2015, the Taliban and other militant units were engaged in operations across all of Afghanistan, hitting major population centers and US bases. They were also conducting ground assaults to seize district centers, most notably in northern and southern Afghanistan. They claimed to control multiple district centers. Al-Qaeda may also have been reinforcing a faction of the Taliban.

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‍The Taliban attacked nine districts in four northern Afghan provinces, and four fell to the Taliban in October 2015. It appeared the Taliban had extended its reach throughout more of the country than since their fall from power in 2001. The UN Assistance Mission closed several offices.

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‍President Obama announced in October 2015 that the US would maintain thousands of troops in Afghanistan into 2017 instead of a nearly total withdrawal by the end of 2016. A senior defense official said the US would probably maintain a force of 9,800 through 2016, and draw down to 5,600 in 2017, depending on the situation.

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‍The Taliban, who have begun their fall offensive, stepped up operations during October 2015 and were making a strong comeback. There was evidence that al-Qaeda was working with them. Complicating this was that ISIS seemed to be operating in the southern provinces and was growing rapidly. Taliban small arms fire hit a USAF F-16 fighter over eastern Paktia Province, but the pilot made it safely back to base. The pilot, staging from Bagram AB, was on a low-level flight searching for the Taliban when he was hit. 

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‍By year’s end, most observers opined that the situation in Afghanistan was deteriorating and that the Taliban was getting stronger by the day. Afghan forces were fighting but could not handle the challenges. The sense was that the situation would get worse.

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‍2016: Taliban gaining strength, ISIS now a threat