‍Starting a love affair is easy, getting out tough

‍Afghanistan: “We are coming very close to a decision. Stay the course”

‍“We are awaiting orders. In the meantime, carry on!”

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‍2017: US not winning, Taliban surging, new strategy needed

‍New President, new strategy: “R4+S”

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‍Close of 2011: 90,000 troops left

‍Close of 2012: 68,000 troops left

‍2013: Mission consists of training, advising, and assisting Afghan forces.

‍Spring 2013: Afghan forces fully responsible for security

‍February 2014:  34,000 troop ceiling met, then shrink the numbers to 1,000 by early 2017

‍December 31, 2014: NATO mission concluded, new mission begun named Resolute Support.

‍2015: 10,600 US troops in Afghanistan for NATO’s Resolute and US Operation Freedom’s Sentinel, with US forces doing both

‍2016:  Raise force level from 8,400 to 14,500, maybe to 15,000

‍2017: Send 3,500 more troops raising force level to 14,500

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‍President Donald Trump took office in January 2017.

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‍January 2017 opened with an announcement that about 300 Marines would return to Helmand Province in the spring as Task Force Southwest (TF SW). Brigadier General Roger Turner, USMC, would be in command. He was quoted as saying,

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‍“We're viewing this as a high-risk mission that really requires training to ensure our Marines are capable of countering the full spectrum of threat. We're not in any way viewing this as a non-combat mission or something to take lightly. We're following the situation [in Helmand] closely ... to make sure the training and force protection is commensurate with that threat."

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‍Press reports painted a bleak picture. The Taliban had grown bolder and better organized. They were holding more territory than at any time since 2001. Pakistan was refueling the Taliban. Poor governance in Afghanistan made matters worse. The situation was especially grim in Helmand Province. It was increasingly difficult to get current, credible news about events in Afghanistan.

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‍General Joseph Votel, USA, commander of CENTCOM, agreed in March 2017 that Afghanistan was in a military deadlock and that more troops were needed. General Nicholson in Afghanistan said that he needed more.

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‍The 300 Marines for TF SW arrived in Helmand in April. General Turner  said, 

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‍"We're still seeing a lot of the same activity that we were seeing years ago from the Taliban. They are still scattering IEDs everywhere … They still kind of indiscriminately target people. They arrest people, they put them in jails, and they extort their families, and they extort the farmers for their poppy production and tax them. ... It's more of the same.”

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‍In June 2017, after nearly 16 years of US war in Afghanistan, Secretary of Defense Mattis told the Senate Armed Services Committee that the US is not winning. He said, "The enemy is surging right now." He also indicated that the US does not have a strategy. He said one would be ready by mid-July 2017, in response to a question from Senator McCain.

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‍”We're putting it together now and there are going to be — there are actions being taken to make certain that we don't pay a price for the delay, but we recognize the need for urgency and your criticism is fair, sir." 

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‍Shortly thereafter, President Donald Trump authorized Mattis to make troop-level decisions in Afghanistan on his own. Rumors were rife that Secretary of Defense Mattis intended to send 4,000 more troops, but a Mattis spokesperson said in June, “Secretary Mattis has made no decisions on a troop increase for Afghanistan.”

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‍In August 2017, Secretary of Defense Mattis said, “I have signed orders, but it is not complete. In other words, I have signed some of the troops who will go, and we are identifying the specific ones.” There were about 8,400 US troops there at the time.

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‍The media kept reporting that about 3,900 more troops would be sent, but that President Trump was wavering and really wanted to get out. In August, Secretary of Defense Mattis told reporters,

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‍“The strategic decisions have not been made, but — I don’t know how to put this — I think that’s all I want to say. The strategic decision has not been made … It’s part of the options being considered. And the president’s open to the advice of the secretary of state, and myself and the director of the CIA … We are close (to a decision on a new strategy for Afghanistan) if there were an increase [in security contractors], we’d tell you there’s going to be an increase. We might not tell you which specific numbers are going where. But no, I mean we’d be — we’d be open about — transparent about that.” 

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‍On August 17, 2017, Mattis outlined the options that would be considered by President Trump. He said,

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‍"We are coming very close to a decision, and I anticipate it in the very near future … The options the Pentagon is presenting are straightforward, and nothing the president has not seen before:

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• "Stay the course with the current strategy, which combines counter-terrorism with a relatively narrow advise-and-assist mission to support Afghan government troops;
• "Add the several thousand additional American forces that the top U.S. general there has asked for;
• "Send in private contractors;
• “Withdraw.”

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‍Secretary of Defense Mattis presented the new strategy for the Afghan War to the Senate Armed Services Committee on October 3, 2017. He termed it,

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‍”R4+S: Regionalize, Realign, Reinforce, Reconcile and Sustain." 

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‍General Dunford, CJCS, commented, 

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‍“This entire effort is to pressure the Taliban and make them understand they will not win a battlefield victory.”

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‍In early November, President Trump agreed to send in 3,500 more troops, raising the force level to 14,500, and there were rumors that another 1,000 would be added. On November 16, the head count, not including temporary forces, was thought to be 14,000, but so many numbers were bandied about that it is hard to tell whether that was the number there or the troops ceiling for the future.

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‍2018: No one said it would get better