This is a two-month blog.
Marine Pacific redeployments remain unsettled
The US and specifically the Marines had developed a major Okinawa Redeployment Plan for the Pacific region that would move a large bulk of 8,000 Marines from Okinawa to Guam. These plans have been in a state of flux for some time due to disagreements between the US and Japan largely associated with funding issues in the US and Japan. The US problem has to do with the costs of upgrading facilities in Guam, and the Japanese problem apparently has to do with helping to defray costs of moving out of Okinawa. Senator Inouye (D-HI) has said 1,000 of the eight are coming to Hawaii. AP has reported that only 4,000 will go to Guam, with the remainder going to Australia and Hawaii. The Korean newspaper Chosun Ibo reported that 3,300 are coming to the Republic of Korea and that the US planned to move 18,000 Marines out of Okinawa. AP also said that 4,700 Marines will go to Guam and 3,300 to other bases such as in Australia and the Philippines. The newspaper also said the US has promised to send 2,500 Marines to Australia. (022212)
Syria presents US with tough decision as Al Qaeda moves in
Reports continue that al Qaeda is moving into Syria to support the rebellion against the Assad government. The Assad government has been known to be very opposed to al Qaeda and has worried this would happen. As we know the Assad regime is pummeling its people in a horrific effort to save itself. The US is hinting at providing the rebels with weapons as a result. One has to wonder whether those weapons could fall into al Qaeda hands, and whether a rebel victory could mean an al Qaeda victory and a new base from which to operate. Keep all this in mind in the context of knowing that al Qaeda is merging with al Shabab in Somalia as well, and al Qaeda is moving into Kenya. In addition, a Tureg rebellion is underway in Mali which has created refuge for al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. This is worth watching. (022212)
Many Navy carriers in home port or under maintenance
All five Naval carriers are in port, two of which are undergoing maintenance, some of which could take years. Of the six Pacific carriers, only two are conducting operations at sea, both positioned in the Arabian Sea. Two are undergoing maintenance, one is in home port, and another is on her way to home port. (021712)
NATO says “no” to military intervention in Syria
NATO SecGeneral Rasmussen said on February 17, 2012 while in Turkey that NATO will not intervene in Syria or provide logistical support for humanitarian corridors even if the UN were to issue a mandate. (021712)
Navy announces forward deployed ships to Rota, Spain
The Navy announced on February 16, 2012 that four Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers will be forward deployed to Rota, Spain. This include three from Norfolk, Va; USS Ross, USS Donald Cook, and USS Porter, and one from Mayport, Fla., USS Carney. (021712)
DNI Clapper acknowledges differences with commanders in Afghan over Afghan War
US force structure changes in Europe announced
The speculation is over regarding US force structure changes in Europe. DoD officials announced the changes on February 16, 2012. The 170th and 172nd Infantry Brigades will inactivate this year and in FY2014 respectively. This will cut all service troop levels in Europe from 80,000 to 70,000 in 2017. Of the 70,000, 40,000 will remain in Germany. These inactivations are part of the overall plan to reduce Army force structure by 70,000 over the next years (this number has wavered between 50,000 and 80,000). V Corps Headquarters in Wiesbaden will inactivate and US Army Europe will move from Heidelberg to Wiesbaden. The USAF’s 81st Fighter Squadron (A-10 Warthog) at Spangdahlem, and the 603rd Air Control Squadron at Aviano will inactivate. The 173rd Airborne Brigade Combat Team will move from Germany to Vicenza. The 2nd Stryker Calvary Regiment at Vilseck and the 173rd Infantry Brigade at Vicenza will remain. (021712)
Russia working to build its own military security alliance
In 1992, Russia signed a Collective Security Agreement with former states of the Soviet Union. The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) is an outgrowth. Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are members. Azerbaijan and Georgia withdrew from the Collective Security Treaty in 1999. Other members of the former Soviet Union have joined NATO or tried to create their own alliances, such as GUAM, the alliance formed by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Russia is now seeking to adjust the CSTO rules with regard to how decisions are made; at present a unanimous vote its required. (021612)
Talk of military intervention in Syria getting louder
While just about everyone says they do not want to intervene militarily in Syria, the talk about doing just that seems to be getting louder. Radwan Ziadeh, reporting for The Financial Times, has outlined a Kosovo-type intervention which would include: designate safe havens to be protected by air power; set up humanitarian corridors that would enable humanitarian organizations to reach people suffering in the urban ares under siege, and protect those as well. France has supported such corridors at the UNSC. Turkey is talking tougher and tougher each day, still in the sanctions arena, but … The Arab League has asked Britain and France to take the lead in a Libya-style contact group to coordinate the next phases of action against Assad. Once again, on the surface no desire for military action, but, such a contact group could easily be a prelude to military action. The Russians say they expect NATO to take military action along with Persian Gulf states. Chinese and Russian diplomats are going back and forth to Syria to try to find a solution to the killing and violence, and continue to oppose any military intervention and any calls for regime change, but outsiders of not know what is being said behind closed doors. (021612)
Abe Lincoln Carrier Strike Group exits Persian Gulf through Hormuz, with Iranian shadows
The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz shadowed by Iranian patrol boats and aircraft, without incident. Being shadowed is routine, a US practice in US waters as well. The Lincoln was led out by the destroyer USS Sterrett and was followed out by cruiser USS Cape St. George. Gunners did man the .50 cal machine guns aboard the carrier and an Iranian patrol boat did pull in nearby. While passing through the traits, the Lincoln was on a “no fly” day, but aircraft were prepped, armed and ready to go if required. Pilots sat 15 minute alert. The CSG is on its way to the Arabian Sea to support Afghan operations. The USS Vinson CSG is already there. The Lincoln launched its first combat missions over Afghanistan on February 16, 2012. (021612)
Afghan, Pak and Iranian leaders to meet in Islamabad
Foreign Policy is reporting that Afghan President Karzai arrived in Islamabad on February 16, 2012 to meet with Pakistani officials, Maulana Samiul Haq, believed to be a spiritual leader for the Afghan Taliban and Iranian President Amedinejad. The meeting with Haq will be separate from the trilateral meeting to discuss Afghan peace, trade and drugs. The Taliban by the way is denying any three-way talks with the US and Afghan government as has been announced by Karzai. (021612)
Afghan transition about to begin by sending five “reconfigured brigades”
The Army is beginning its Afghan transition for 2013 from combat to advisory by identifying five brigades it plans to send to Afghanistan between April and August 2012. But the brigades will be only 50 percent manned and their mission will be to “generate, employ and sustain” Afghan forces, to wit, advise. The reconfigured Army brigades that will deploy starting in April are the 2nd Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division, from Fort Campbell, Ky.; the 2nd Brigade of the 3rd Infantry Division, from Fort Stewart, Ga.; the 3rd Brigade of the 4th Infantry Division, from Fort Carson, Colo.; the 4th Brigade of the 1st Armored Division, from Fort Bliss, Texas; and the 162nd Infantry Brigade from Fort Polk, La. Each brigade will deploy only with officers and senior NCOs along with some DoD civilians. Once in Afghanistan, they will operate as 18-person teams in a train and advise role. As these teams deploy, a total of 28,000 troops now there will leave as part the plan to get to 68,000 left by the end of September 2012. (021612)
USAF to activate detachment in Poland
The USAF will activate a detachment in Poland to host USAF aircraft in and out for training and logistics flights. Twelve airmen will operate the detachment year round. The Det is likely to host F-16 fighters and C-130 cargo aircraft for two week stints. The Poles already own and fly the F-16, as shown in the photo, so this will provide a good chance for both air forces to train together. This is huge, as it reflects a US commitment to defend Poland. It is lily to be located at the 32nd Baza Lotnicza (Tactical Air Base) In Lask, southwest of Warsaw. Poland is already a key partner in the US missile defense program and has committed forces to both Iraq and Afghanistan. They remain in Afghan to this day. (021512)
Budget curve ball to perceived Afghan plan
The centerpiece of Afghan war planning lately has seemed to be to train and build the Afghan Army and National Police forces. Yet, Foreign Policy Magazine is reporting that Obama’s FY2013 budget cuts funding for training and equipping Afghan security forces by 50 percent. What? It is worth noting, however, that the Senate has not passed a budget in three years. So once again, the Afghan situation gets muddled. (021412)
Afghan strategy starting to emerge
The US and much of NATO are serious about substantially scaling back their combat operations in Afghanistan by the end of 2013, and switching to an advisory role through the end of 2014. But there is much more to it than that. First, always remember that advisors go out on combat missions with those they are mentoring, and they fight, die and get wounded. But there will likely also be a significant number of special forces troops in Afghan whose mission in the main will be to hunt, capture or kill high-value targets. Negotiations with the Taliban, some say they are only conversations, are well underway and are making some very slow progress. The Taliban continues to talk despite the US refusal to withdraw when the Taliban wants the US to withdraw. The US already has scaled back its winter combat operations --- the Taliban does not like to fight in winter, and the US has in the past taken advantage of that to hunt them down and fight. But not at such high levels now. The US, knowing that Pakistan has relations with the Taliban, is using those as a conduit to the Taliban. So Pakistan is part of the mix. While the Taliban has not been defeated, the US remains able to strike at it at will on its own schedule, and inflict considerable damage. The Taliban understands it cannot defeat the US. To wit, a stalemate. The stalemate allows the US to continue building the Afghan military, and the Taliban has little recourse but to allow that to happen. The US will also establish a policy to strike at any effort to maintain a jihadist movement against the US in Afghanistan, even after the US leaves. He who leaves can return, attack, and leave again. The US can do this forever. In and out, in and out. (021312)
Al-Shabab and al-Qaeda may be joining ranks
Ayman al-Zawahir, chief, al-Qaeda, has said that al-Qaeda has joined forces with al-Shabab, Somalia’s insurgent group. Al-Shabab's leader Ahmed Abdi Godane addressed Zawahiri, saying: "We will move along with you as faithful soldiers." Al-Shabab controls much of southern and central Somalia. Forces from neighboring countries are mow fighting against al-Shabab, including Kenyan forces in the south, Ethiopian soldiers in the west, and an African Union force in Mogadishu made up of 10,000 troops from Uganda, Burundi and Djibouti. (021012)
Pacific realignment up in the air
For some time now, US and partner nation planners have been working out arrangements to move a significant number of US Marines out of Okinawa, activate a new base for remaining Marines on Okinawa, and establish a major military presence on Guam. This all seems now to be falling apart largely because of projected costs. Planning now is looking at reducing the planned footprint in Guam and increasing it in Australia and the Philippines. Along with this is planning to rotate forces in and out of all locations instead of bedding them down permanently. This “rotation” concept is being employed in Europe as well as the US Army withdraws two of three combat brigades from Europe, replacing them with rotations of troops in and out. The “Rotation Concept” is controversial, some arguing it to be more expensive and disruptive than permanent stationing. Guam wants the increased presence, so do Australia and the Philippines. So this endeavor is a long way from being settled. (020612)
US ready to form international coalition against Government of Syria
Given that Russia and China vetoed a resolution against Syria in the UN Security Council (UNSC), the US and others have suggested formation of an international coalition of like-minded nations to work against the Government of Syria and to support the Free Syrian Army. I have always advocated formation of ad hoc international relationships vice using formal international organizations such as the UN and NATO as the best means to approach differing international problems and events. It will be interesting to see how this evolves. SecState Clinton has said, "Faced with a neutered Security Council, we have to redouble our efforts outside of the United Nations …. friends of democratic Syria (should unite to) support the Syrian people's right to have a better future." AP has reported the US has closed it embassy in Syria and recalled its ambassador. Britain has also recalled its ambassador. In the old days, these were indications of impending military conflict, not necessarily true here. (020612)
US has political mess deciding what to do about Afghanistan
The recent flurry of announcements about switching from a combat role to advisory role in Afghanistan in 2013 and the potential for an early French withdrawal have exposed a jumble of differing positions within the US government, executive and legislative, over what to do about Afghanistan. Anthony Cordesman, a respected analyst of military affairs, has said that the US has never had a real strategy for Afghanistan, especially with regard to what it hopes to achieve there. Accusations are emerging that President Obama has moved to this 2013 action in order to ready position himself for the presidential election. However, General David Petraeus, DIRCIA, has explained that a major transition would have to start in 2013 in order to get out by the end of 2014. SecState Clinton has decided to stay above the fray, at least publicly, saying, “I am not going to go into any details about what we are or are not prepared to do, because we are just at the beginning of this process of exploration whether or not there is an opportunity to bring about an end to the conflict through a political solution … There will continue to be all kinds of speculation about what is or is not happening.” Complicating all this now is that a military officer has openly challenged the civilian and military leaderships’ handling of the war. Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis wrote in the Armed Force Journal, "I witnessed the absence of success on virtually every level… I saw little to no evidence the local governments were able to provide for the basic needs of the people. Some of the Afghan civilians I talked with said the people didn't want to be connected to a predatory or incapable local government … From time to time, I observed Afghan Security forces collude with the insurgency." (020612)
Panetta says Israeli strike against Iran likely this year
The Washington Post says SecDef Panetta believes there is a “strong likelihood” that Israel will launch air strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in spring 2012. Even Israeli leaders are now more open about the possibility. (020312)
General McCaffrey believes Iran can close Hormuz --- do not put US carrier at risk
General Barry R. McCaffrey, USA (Ret.), believes Iran can close the Strait of Hormuz and can sink a US aircraft carrier. He told a seminar of NBC executives on January 12, 2012 the following: “They have three Kilo class subs and perhaps 19 other mini-subs, a significant sea mining capacity, some extremely effective shore based missile batteries--- some highly effective air defense capabilities--- and a small number of high performance aircraft with missiles that could deny the two mile wide Hormuz
sea transit zone to safe tanker traffic. They could also place the GCC/Saudi Gulf oil terminals at risk. The latest saber rattling by the Iranian Armed Forces threatening the US Navy Carrier Stennis Battle Group to not return to the Gulf was significant. It was immediately and widely derided as an empty threat by 5th Fleet in Bahrain. In my judgment the US will not and should not place a carrier at risk in the narrow Gulf waters if combat operations are deemed likely. There is a high probability that the Iranians could sink a US carrier (with 5000+ sailors) in these constrained waters with their current military capabilities. It would mean all-out war if that happened.” (020312)
US military reorganization underway in Europe
The US is reorganizing its military posture in Europe. We have been reporting that two of three Army brigades are scheduled to leave, to be replaced in part by rotating units in and out from the US. The US has announced it will consolidate its air command headquarters in Ramstein, Germany and Izmir, Turkey into one at Ramstein, to be known as Headquarters Allied Air Command Ramstein. In turn, this reorganization will include establishing a staff at Ramstein dedicated to missile defense and command and control of missile defense forces. The Army has already established a command-level air and missile defense unit at Rhine Ordnance Barracks near Ramstein. Four US naval ships will be sent to Rota, Spain to support missile defense operations from the sea. The US will also send a ground-based radar system to Romania by 2015 and set up interceptors in Poland by 2018. (020212)
USS Makin Island has relieved the USS Bataan in Arabian Sea area
The USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) has replaced the USS Bataan ARG in the Arabian Sea region. The Bataan has exited the Mediterranean Sea. This is the maiden deployment for the Makin. She has the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked. She has been joined by the amphibious dock landing ship USS Pearl Harbor, the amphibious transport dock ship USS New Orleans. The Makin Island is the first Navy ship to be equipped with gas turbines and an electric drive system replacing the older technology of steam boilers -- making the ship function more like a hybrid car, traveling longer. The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) remains in the Persian Gulf while the USS Carl Vinson CSG remains in the Arabian Sea conducting operations against enemy forces in Afghanistan. (020112)
Most of America’s mutual defense treaty commitments are in Asia
All female crew flies E2C combat mission from USS Vinson, a first
Air Control Officer Lt. Nydia Williams, left, Radar Operator Lt. j.g. Ashley Ellison, Plane Commander Lt. Cmdr. Tara Refo, Pilot Lt. Ashley Ruic, and Mission Commander Lt. Cmdr. Brandy Jackson, all assigned to Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron (VAW) 125 “Tigertails,” pose for a photo before flying the first all-female-crewed combat mission over Afghanistan in an E-2C Hawkeye aboard the Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70). Carl Vinson and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17 are deployed to the U.S. 5th Fleet area of responsibility. (013112)
Withdrawal of two Army brigades from Europe takes form
Stars & Stripes reported on January 26, 2012 that General Odierno, USA, Chief of Staff, Army (CSA) has confirmed that two head infantry brigades will be withdrawn from Europe, one out in 2013, the other in 2014. They will not be replaced. The 172nd and 170th are the only two heavy infantry brigades in Europe, but thus far no confirmation that they are the ones to be withdrawn. (013112)
US conducts air attacks in Yemen
AP reported on January 31, 2012 that US officials have said, “U.S. airstrikes targeting leaders from Yemen's active al-Qaida branch killed four suspected militants, including a man suspected of involvement in the 2000 bombing of the USS Cole.” Yemeni officials said the attack was carried out by missiles on January 30, 2012, but it is not known what kind of launch vehicle was used. American officials have acknowledged conducting air attacks against suspected al-Qaeda leaders in the Arabian peninsula but did not say where or how. (013112)
Budget bashing Army, now the USAF hits ‘em again with A-10 cuts
The word is that the defense budget is going to hurt the Army the most, cutting as many as 50,000 troops and God only knows how much equipment. Now the USAF is hitting the Army when it is down. The Military Times reported on January 30, 2012 that the USAF plans to cut five A-10 Warthog squadrons over the next five years, replacing them with the F-35. The Air Force Times reported that the USAF will cut 29 percent of the A-10 inventory. It sounds like a bit of a play on words here, numbers of operational squadrons vs. total aircraft invetory. The A-10 has been very popular with the Army in its valuable close air support role to forces on the ground. This has long been a point of friction between the two services. The A-10 is sub-sonic and displays a very large and vulnerable silhouette when pulling out of a strafing-bombing run. That said, it has long been known as an accurate and very lethal sharpshooter for troops on the ground, and it is a rock, able to take a lot of hits and still make it home. Some say, probably in jest, that the Army “will fly the damn thing itself.” The aircraft was originally viewed as a “tank-killer,” and did that well in Iraq, but also became a great troop killer. (013112)
More trouble in Afghanistan --- violence ramping up in south and east
ISAF has released figures that show the Taliban has increased its attacks in southern and eastern Afghanistan, up 19 percent in the east, and six percent in the south. Attacks in these regions account for two-thirds of enemy attacks across the country. This despite intensive NATO operations in these areas and significant casualties. (012512)
The Haditha case is at long last closed --- end of a six year prosecution
Gadhafi loyalists take western Libyan city, but …
Loyalists of the ousted regime of Gadhafi have taken the western Libyan city of Bani Walid. The attack involved hundreds of loyalists. Bani Walid is located 90 miles southeast of tripoli and was one of the last cities to fall to the revolutionary militias. One must not read too much into this yet. Bani Walid is a volatile area of tribal rivals and at present it is hard to say who controls what and for what reason. (012412)
French and British in Persian Gulf with Abe Lincoln
I reported on January 23, 2012 that the USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on January 22, 2012 without incident. It is worth adding that she, and other US ships, were accompanied by Britain’s HMS Argyll frigate and France’s frigate La Motte Picquet. The British are thinking of adding more, while the French frigate has separated from the Abe Lincoln but remains in the area. The Argyll is based out of Bahrain, where the British also have one more frigate, four anti-mine vessels, three support ships, and a survey vessel stationed and one hunter-killer submarine in the region. The French have 650 troops, including one infantry battalion, stationed in the UAE. Furthermore, the Brits have 1,500 sailors east of the Suez ready for redeployment as required. The thinking at the moment is that Iran is all bluster and is trying to jack up the price of oil with its threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, an action which will hurt the Europeans. That said, one miscalculation or one event could trigger major military action, especially if such an event were to involve an attack against the US carrier. (012412)
China’s class to South China Sea a big mistake for them
The Chinese have been reemphasizing their long-held belief to ownership of the South China Sea all the way to the Philippines and Southeast Asia. This may have been a major mistake, as most nations in the area and the US see the South China Sea as international waters. As a result, many neighboring countries are working to get closer ties with the US, a development the Chinese surely did not intend. The USN intends to salt through these waters at will. As an editorial comment, the Chinese are smoking bad dope if they think they can enforce these claims. (012312)
Major troop withdrawals from Europe expected this year
The Atlantic Council reported on January 23, 2012 that as many as 10,000 US soldiers could be withdrawn from Europe starting in October 2012, along with as many as 25,000 dependents. Originally the Army expected to withdrawn one brigade combat team (BCT), but SecDef Panetta has said we will withdraw two. The Army plans to rotate troops in and out instead of assigning the, permanently. The US has about 41,000 trips in Europe with over 100,000 dependents, mostly in Germany. There are four BCTs in Europe, three in Germany, on win Italy. It is not yet known which BCTs will leave, but the 170th and 172nd seem to be on the top of the list. The 170th is in the process of leaving Afghanistan while the 172nd is expected to return to Germany from Afghanistan in the spring. (012312)
First all-female Seabee team completes construction in Helmand Province, Afghan
Eight USN Seabeee females from Naval Base Ventura County, California completed construction of four barracks buildings in Afghan’s Helmand province recently, the first all female team to do that, and they did it ahead of schedule. The LA Times reported, “Military officials say they are the first all-female construction team to take on a construction job from start to finish in the Seabees' 70-year history.” The women are home-based at Bagram. (012312)
Abe Lincoln goes through Strait of Hormuz
The USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN72) entered the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz on January 22, 2012 without incident. The Navy’s statement was: "USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN 72) completed a regular and routine transit of the Strait of Hormuz, Jan. 22, to conduct maritime security operations as scheduled and in support of requirements set by the combatant commander. The transit was completed as previously scheduled and without incident." I do not know if just the carrier went in or whether she brought her entire Carrier Strike Group with her. (012312)
MV-22 Osprey in her first fight near Sangin, Afghanistan
On June 12, 2012, a Marine Corps MV-22 Osprey flew into a hot zone in Sangin, Afghan to deliver food, water and ammo to infantry pinned down in a major firefight. Normally the MV-22 will not fly into such a zone but she had to deliver her load for troops loved in battle on the ground. For the first time, the Osprey crew employed its ramp-mounted machine gun to defend itself and troops on the ground. The crew landed in a LZ and spotted enemy 70 meters to the front. Armed UH-1Y Huey helicopters flew overhead providing protective cover and support to the ground forces. The Osprey crew scrambled to unload its pallets, several of them breaking apart when they hit the ground. Marines on the ground tried to pull the stuff to safety but had to return to the action instead. Within minutes, the Osprey took off and climbed out in a hard left turn, its M240D 7.62 mm medium machine gun aft firing. The MV-22 was never hit and made it to base successfully. The ground force got their stuff. (012112)
Operations not going well in Afghan --- 26 troops lost in January so far
The NATO ISAF force in Afghanistan has lost 26 troops thus far this month as of January 20, 2012. Ten were lost in two days. A man in an Afghan uniform killed four French troops on January 20. A US helicopter crash in southern Afghan killed six on January 19. Prior to January 19, 16 troops, of which 14 were Americans, had been killed during the month. Thitry-two died in January 2011. (012112)
Naval presence in Arabian Sea still building --- a bit of a mystert
The Navy says it is in the midst of a routine rotation of Carrier Strike Groups (CSGs) in the Arabian Sea. I reported on January 13, 2012, “the USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) had left the Arabian Sea relieved by the USS Vinson, and the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG was in the Indian Ocean on its way to the area as well.” The STRATFOR Global Intelligence Group now reports that a third CSG is on its way and a fourth based in Japan is about a week away from the region. I am not sure I fully understand this, as STRATFOR did not name the CSGs involved. I will have to followup. (011712) Update: The USS Abraham Lincoln CSG has arrived in the 5th Fleet Area of responsibility, joining with the Vinson CSG. To my knowledge, a third CSG is not on its way to the region, and at present there are no carriers in Japan. (012012)
Russia deploying missile systems to Kaliningrad --- NATO worried
AFP reported on January 20, 2012 that NAO chief Rasmussen urged Russia on January 19, 2012 from building up its military near NATO borders. He argues the Russians are building up against a “an enemy that doesn’t exist.” It is believe the Russians moved the Iskander nuclear equipped Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM), shown here, to its Kaliningrad enclave, which is on the Baltic Sea sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania. It was a former German territory annexed by Soviet forces in 1945 but was separated from Russia when the Soviet Union dissolved. The Russians also plan to deploy the S-400 Triumph surface-to-air missile (SAM) in April 2012. (012012)
USAF hoping to get B-1 Lancer to Afghanistan to provife close air support
The USAF has been modifying the B-1 Lancer bomber, once considered a strategic bomber, transforming it into a close air support bomber able to attack stationary and moving targets on the ground, the latter being the most important. A new pod system has been developed and has been in testing that will enable the Lancer to expend precision guided munitions against moving enemy targets. The goal was to have the bombers operational in January 2012. (012012)
US announces deployment rotation to Afghanistan
The Army will deploy the Headquarters, 3rd Infantry Division, and the 1st Brigade Combat Team (BCT) and 4th BCT of the 82nd Airborne Division to Afghanistan as part of a routine rotation. I do not yet know when the rotation will occur, but I believe it is soon. (012012)
Afghan soldiers killing NATO Allies at alarming rates - France threatens two withdraw from SAfghan
A behavioral scientist has issued a 70-page classified coalition report, “A Crisis of Trust and Cultural Incompatibility,” that says there is enormous and growing contempt between Afghan Army soldiers and NATO Allied soldiers and an increase in the number of times Afghan soldiers attack and kill Allied soldiers, The New York Times reported on January 20, 2012. The scientist prepared the report for the Regional Command East, a US commanded NATO organization. The Times paints a picture of “growing ill will” between the two sides. The report apparently had been leaked to The Wall Street Journal last year and says in part, “Lethal altercations are clearly not rare or isolated; they reflect a rapidly growing systemic homicide threat (a magnitude of which may be unprecedented between ‘allies’ in modern military history).” The report charged that NATO has been “disingenuous, if not profoundly intellectually dishonest” in its comments on the problem. The Times leaves the impression that this problem is going to get worse as neither side trusts the other. The most recent attack was on January 20, 2012 when an Afghan soldier shot and killed four French soldiers involved in their training. France has threatened to withdraw from the Afghan War as a result. (012012)
Air Force updates definition of “Air power”
The USAF has updated its definition of “air power.” It now reads: “The ability to project military power or influence through the control and exploitation of air, space and cyberspace to achieve strategic, operational or tactical objectives.” The USAF believes this to be a more inclusive definition of what it has actually been doing, which involves activities beyond simply combat. (011812)
Missile defense radar operational in Turkey
An early warning (EW) radar station that is part of NATO’s missile defense system in Europe is operational in the city of Malataya, southeastern Turkey. Turkish officials announced this in January 16, 2012. The location puts the radar about 435 miles west of the Iranian border. Iran is upset. US and Turkish personnel are manning the radar. Portugal, Poland, Romania and Spain have also agreed to participate in the program. (011812)
Air attacks down in Afghanistan, surveillance sorties up
The US flew 133 air attacks against targets in Afghanistan in which they employed their weapons, the lowest monthly total in three years, down fore than 50 percent from a year ago. This might be the result of reduced offensive ground action by NATO forces, who are transitioning from a combat to a training role. It does raise a question as to whether Afghan Army ground operations have declined or are not in need of air support. Writing for The New York Times on January 15, 2012, C.J. Chivers said, “The use of air power has changed markedly during the long Afghan conflict … Cmdr. Layne McDowell glanced over his left shoulder, through the canopy of a Navy F/A-18, to an Afghan canyon 9,000 feet below. An American infantry company was down there. The soldiers had been inserted by helicopter. Now a ground controller wanted the three strike fighters circling overhead to send a sign — both to the grunts and to any Taliban fighters shadowing them as they walked. Commander McDowell banked and aligned his jet’s nose with the canyon’s northeastern end. Then he followed his wingmen’s lead. He dived, pulled level at 5,000 feet and accelerated down the canyon’s axis at 620 miles per hour, broadcasting his proximity with an extended engine roar. In the lexicon of close air support, his maneuver was a ‘show of presence’ — a mid-altitude, nonlethal display intended to reassure ground troops and signal to the Taliban that the soldiers were not alone. It reflected a sharp shift in the application of American air power, de-emphasizing overpowering violence in favor of sorties that often end without munitions being dropped.” McDowell went on to say, “So much has changed from when I was here the first time … Now I prefer not dropping — if I can accomplish the mission other ways.” (011712)
US-Israel postpone missile exercise
On January 5, 2012, I highlighted that the Jerusalem Post reported on January 5, 2012, “thousands of US soldiers will be deployed in Israel” this spring for a combined missile defense exercise. Israel and the US have now agreed to postpone the exercise. Speculation is they do not want to aggravate the already tense situation with Iran. (011712)
Washington’s story changes while US forces build-up in Persian Gulf region
We reported a few days ago that the USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) had left the Arabian Sea relieved by the USS Vinson, and that the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG was in the Indian Ocean on its way to the area as well. Washington said this was not in reaction to issues with Iran. The Washington Tribune reported on January 13, 2011 that such is not true. The two CSGs will remain in the Arabian Sea, and there are build-ups in train elsewhere, all in response to CINCENTCOM’s requirement for more forces to respond to any contingency with Iran. The 1st Brigade “Ironhorses” of the 1st Cav Division has about 4,500 troops in Kuwait, moved there from Iraq with artillery and tanks. It has been designated a “Mobile Response Force.” A National Guard Brigade from Minnesota has been in Kuwait since August 2011. A combat aviation brigade arrived in December. And reports are another major unit is preparing to deploy there soon. (011312)
National Intelligence Estimate of Afghan grim, differs with military assessment
Stars & Stripes, Ken Dilanian and David Cloud, report, “The U.S. intelligence community says in a secret new assessment (National Intelligence Estimate - NIE) that the war in Afghanistan is mired in stalemate, and warns that security gains from an increase in American troops have been undercut by pervasive corruption, incompetent governance and Taliban fighters operating from neighboring Pakistan.” They say the military disagrees and has objected to the report’s findings. The problem is the NIE represents the consensus view of 16 US intelligence agencies. It projects the Afghan government cannot survive as the US withdraws. It brings into question whether the US can withdraw by 2014, or conversely, gives a picture of complete Afghan breakdown if the US does withdraw. I have seen other reports indicating the Taliban is almost sure to regain power after the US leaves. (011211)
As US withdraws from Europe, Europeans find themselves largely incapable of defense
Peter Apps reporting for Reuters on January 10, 2012 highlights that as the US withdraws from European defense responsibilities, the Europeans, long dependent on the US, are in bad shape to defend themselves. This comes at a time when the Europeans also cannot afford to buttress their defenses to where they need to be. We saw this played out in Libya, when the European depended so much on the US for cruise missiles and intelligence and surveillance European air forces ran low on munitions, and US drones had to be brought in. The Europeans have also been hard pressed to provide the support that was needed by NATO in Afghanistan. When they fought, they fought with valor, but they were undermanned, under equipped and poorly supplied. This was especially true for the British, who took on many very dangerous missions. For much of the war, Italy and Germany occupied safe havens, though lately the Germans in the north have been confronted with increased combat pressures. Apps has opined that the real problem in Europe, though, is not so much money as it is military disorganization and inefficient planning capabilities. (011212)
Cries from Brookings that US should be more engaged in Africa not new --- beware
Voice of America reported on January 11, 2012 that the Brookings Institution of Washington is urging the US to take amore pro-active policy toward Africa. Senior Fellow Mwangi Kimenyi, director of the Africa Growth Initiative said, “What we are seeing is sort of what we may call a decline of the United States in Africa because it is being edged out slowly by China, Brazil, Russia, and others. And so, we would like to see President Obama take a very pro-active policy position with regards to Africa.” He also said there should be more US investment in Africa. During the Clinton Administration, when Susan Rice, now the US ambassador to the UN was Assistant Secretary of State for Africa, there was a massive and very public push for all that, and streaming reports from them of resounding successes. The Washington-based Corporate Council on Africa (CCA) formed in 1993 to facilitate improved commercial ties with Africa. This editor observed all these goings on with great skepticism, seeing the CCA was really interested in oil and other big ticket companies in the communications industry, with little interest in promoting real development of African companies and active trade with the US outside of oil and minerals. It was clear at the time that this was all talk and no action, and it was also clear that Africa was a very dangerous and risky place to do business. This editor places the Brookings Institution chatter in the same category. The new National Strategy places Latin America and Africa at a very low priority. So this editor still thinks this is all much to do about nothing. That said, it is troubling to see the US Africa Command (AFRICOM) engaged in an up-tick of military operations on the continent, with multiple training activities underway, Marines chasing terrorists in the Trans Sahel region, the Task Force Horn of Africa in Djibouti engaged in operations in Somalia, and US special forces in Uganda and Central African Republic active hunting down Joseph Kony and his Lord’s Resistance Army which has for many years caused great death and destruction especially in Uganda. Africans would do well to beware of US initiatives there, many of which simply ingratiate US-based non-government organizations which occupy some of the swankiest office spaces on Massachusetts and Connecticut Aves and K St. with the US Agency for International Development, a State Department entity, employing a lot of people and spending a lot of money for little return to Africans and great return to themselves. (011212)
Stennis CSG leaves, Vinson CSG in charge
A few days ago I reported “The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has arrived from its voyage from the US through the Western Pacific to the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility and the Arabian Sea area. The USS Stennis CSG is already there, for how long, I am not yet sure.” The Navy has reported that the Stennis CSG has departed the Arabian Sea and the Vinson CSG is now in charge, that the US is not keeping two CSGs there. The Navy was a bit sensitive to the thought that the US was reacting to problems with Iran. The Pentagon said no. All this said, the navy is also saying that the USS Abraham Lincoln CSG is in the Indian Ocean and on its way to join the Vinson, so it is hard at the moment to figure out what is happening here. The US has had two CSGs in the area on multiple occasions in the past, but that was when both the Iraq and Afghan wars were in train simultaneously. (011211)
US V Corps to move to Afghanistan
Marines chasing terrorists in Africa’s “Trans-Sahel” region - the “next frontier” against terror
The Marine Times reported on January 9, 2012 that 180 Marines of Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force 12 are serving in the Trans Sahel region of Africa, across the center of the continent’s north along the Sahara Desert. Major Dave Winnacker of SPMAGTF-12 said, “There are al-Qaida affiliates operating in and around this area … This definitely is the next frontier as far as there is the opportunity for expansion for both ourselves and for violent extremists. Essentially, we’re trying to beat them to the punch.” The Marines a SPMAGTF this way: “A SPMAGTF is a “non-standing” MAGTF temporarily formed to conduct a specific mission.” They are under the command of the US Africa Command (AFRICOM). The Marines are employing cars and SUVs and have taken driving courses that fly in the face of normal driving safety. These guys are smoking across the desert and wild terrain. It is not clear to this editor by what authority the Marines are conducting this, what appears to be a combat mission. It looks like the Obama administration is saying they are there to train African militaries to conduct such missions. At the risk of beating a dead horse to death, training missions are simply a cover for our forces going out with forces of other nations in combat situations to help train them. (011112)
Iranian nuclear scientist blown up by car bomb --- Covert war?
On December 12, 2011, I alerted you to this: “A consensus seems to be developing among expert observers that the US and Israel, maybe even Britain, are waging a new kind of war against Iran and that Iran is doing the same to those countries and perhaps others. For the moment, it appears the Allies are waging a covert campaign inside Iran to get at her nuclear facilities and foment unrest among the people. It appears bomb blasts are one tactic, but cyber warfare is another, planting worms inside Iranian nuclear-related computer systems.” I also alerted you to a report by Scott Stewart, writing for the Stratfor Global Intelligence Group said this in a reported published December 8, 2011, entitled “The Covet Intelligence War against Iran”. It would appear the war is on and continues. Someone placed a bomb under the car of Mostafa Ahmadi Roshan. He is an Iranian nuclear scientist working on Iran’s nuclear program, at Iran’s nuclear enrichment lab. (011112)
USS Carl Vinson CSG arrives in Arabian Sea, doubled up with USS Stennis for the moment
The USS Carl Vinson Carrier Strike Group (CSG) has arrived from its voyage from the US through the Weestern Pacific to the 5th Fleet Area of Responsibility and the Arabian Sea area. The USS Stennis CSG is already there, for how long, I am not yet sure. The aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson (CVN 70) is deployed with guided-missile cruiser USS Bunker Hill (CG 52) and guided-missile destroyer USS Halsey (DDG 97). Embarked aboard Vinson is Destroyer Squadron 1 and Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 17, which include the "Fighting Redcocks" of Strike Fighter Squadron (VFA) 22, the "Sunliners" of VFA 81, the "Stingers" of VFA 113, the "First of the Fleet" of (VFA) 25, the "Garudas" of Electronic Attack Squadron 134, the "Tigertails" of Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron 125 and the "Red Lions" of Helicopter Anti-Submarine Squadron 15. (011012)
USS Makin Island replaces USS Bataan in Arabian Sea
The USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) with the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked has replaced the USS Bataan ARG with the 22nd MEU embarked on January 6, 2012 in the Arabian Sea. The 11th MEU is made up mostly of Battalion Landing Team (BLT) 3-1 Marines, Medium Helicopter Squadron 58 (Reinforced) and Combat Logistics Battalion 11. Bataan will return to homeport at Norfolk. This is the maiden voyage for the Makin Island, the Navy’s newest amphibious assault ship. The Makin Island ARG ships include San Diego-based amphibious assault ship USS Makin Island (LHD 8), amphibious transport dock ship USS New Orleans (LPD 18) and amphibious dock landing ship USS Pearl Harbor (LSD 52). (011012)
Russian carrier task force arrives in Syria
At long last, after a lot of advance publicity, a Russian naval task force led by the carrier Admiral Kuznetsov has arrived in Syria, at the port of Tartus. It arrived on January 8, 2012. Russia maintains a naval maintenance facility near Tartus. This is its only military site in the Mediterranean Sea region. Russia plans to modernize it. The Russians say the task force is in the area for training, and that it will leave Tartus on January 9 to conduct that training, probably in Syria’s near environs. I have not yet seen a report of that departure. (011012)
Royal Navy heading to the Persian Gulf
The British Royal Navy is sending the HMS Daring, its fiercest ship, a Type 45 destroyer, to the Persian Gulf area in response to Iranian threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. The Daring is a highly sophisticated ship with the capability to shoot down surface-to-surface missies, employing the Sea Viper missile. She will transit the Suez Canal and enter the Persian Gulf later in January 2012. It is not yet known whether the US will support the Daring’s effort. The US currently has the USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) in the Arabian Sea, but her aircraft are conducting strike sorties in Afghanistan. The Navy also has the USS Bataan Amphibious Ready Group (ARG) in the area with a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) embarked. (010812)
Thousands of US troops to go to Israel for missile exercise
The Jerusalem Post reported on January 5, 2012, “thousands of US soldiers will be deployed in Israel” this spring. The Post said Lt. General Frank Gorenc, commander, 3rd AF, visited Israel recently to finalize plans for what is being billed as the largest ever missile defense exercise. The Post added that the US will set up command posts in Israel and the Israeli Defense Force (IDF) will set up command posts at the US European Command (UEUCOM) headquarters in Stuttgart, Germany. Apparently the plan is to use these combined command posts in the event of a large-scale conflict in the Mideast. The Post said, “The US will also bring its THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense) and shipbased Aegis ballistic missile defense systems to Israel to simulate the interception of missile salvos against Israel.” (010512)
Final Haditha trial has begun - jury has been seated.
The Haditha court-martial for SSgt. Frank Wuterich began on January 4, 2012 as scheduled, at Camp Pendleton, California. The first item of business is jury selection, which has been completed. You will recall that Defense officials determined that 24 Iraqs of whom 19 were civilians, including women and children, were killed by the men of K/3-1 Marines on November 19, 2005 in the town of Haditha, Iraq. These officials further determined that four of the Marines murdered the civilians. The four Marines were charged in 2006 in connection with the deaths, and four Marine officers were charged with dereliction of duty, obstruction of justice and making false statements. Charges were dropped against six of the Marines, and one was acquitted. That left SSgt. Frank Wuterich, the squad leader, as the only one left to prosecute. His trial has been an on-and-off thing since then for all kinds of technical reasons. He was originally charged with murder, but as of June 2011, the charges include nine counts of voluntary manslaughter, aggravated assault, dereliction of duty, obstruction of justice and reckless endangerment. His legal team had been pushing for dismissal. But the Marines decided to go ahead, and they have done so. (010512)
USS Stennis CSG in northern ARabian Sea, despite Iranian warnings
The USS Stennis Carrier Strike Group (CSG) is in the north Arabian Sea offshore Iran launching attacks against enemy forces in Afghanistan despite Iranian warnings. Admiral Faller, the CSG commander, says it’s business as usual. “Business as usual” most surely includes keeping a close eye on the Iranians. Should the Iranians attack, one is forced to wonder whether we will retaliate --- if the Iranians were to hit the Stennis itself, I have to believe a retaliation would come soon and that it would be very lethal. (010512)
AirSea Battle replacing AirLand Battle in National Strategy
The review of a new National Strategy is set to begin this week. Experst expect the focus to be on China with reduced focus on Latin America and Africa. The “Two Major Regional Conflict” (MRC) Strategy which said we had to build a force structure able to handle two simultaneous MRCs will likely be scrapped. The Army will bear the brunt of cuts (as high as 14 percent cut) while the USAF and USN will feel the budget cuts less. The Marines are already set to define in numbers, though they are a major part of the AirSea Battle. (010412)
Task Force Horn of Africa mission expands --- military to nation-building, yet again
Task Force Horn of Africa, subordinate to the US African Command, a combatant unified command, was set up in November 2002 as a seafaring force aimed at blocking terrorists fleeing Afghanistan to Africa. Its headquarters was afloat but has for some time been at a French Foreign Legion base in Djibouti, Camp Lemonier. It now has 3,500 US military people assigned. It is now a Combined Task Force Horn of Africa (CJTF-HOA). It is the only US base in sub Saharan Africa. Its mission has expanded to defense, diplomacy and development, including digging wells, building and refurbishing schools, and it is now seeking to help African nations build capability so they can promote regional security and stability. Once again the US has allowed mission creep to settle in. What was a clear military mission is now an ambitious nation-building mission. Why? This editor submits we do not have the military resources any more for our military people to be drilling wells for locals as is shown in the photo taken in Ethiopia. Let the Agro Dept. come in and do that. Our military forces are spread all over the world doing this kind of thing in many varied forms. I submit theirs is a military mission, not a feel good nation-building mission. We have to keep what are going to be limited forces in tough economic times combat ready at all times. That does not involve planting wheat or digging wells for locals. (010212)
Brazilian Embraer -29 to become USAF Light Air Support aircraft
The USAF has selected Brazil’s Embraer A-29 Super Tucano as the Light Air Support (LAS) aircraft to be used mainly for counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. The USAF plans to buy 20. The word on the street is that it will be used for reconnaissance and surveillance and probably forward air control work to support troops on the ground. My recommendation is to watch how they hang a bunch of weapons and cannons on her to convert her into an old A-1E type aircraft used for COIN in Laos and Vietnam. (123111)
Britain could join US-Canada North Atlantic economic community
This is not strictly a military item, but is worth watching. Given the current problems in the European Union (EU), and the fact that Britain has steadfastly remained outside the Eurozone, there is now a new look being taken at bringing Britain into the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with the US and Canada. That according to the highly respited Atlantic Council. Interestingly, Canada has been complaining loudly about how other NATO nations, other than the US and Britain, have failed to live up to their military obligations as NATO members. The US has been doing the same. I would not be surprised to see an impact on NATO membership downstream should Britain join NAFTA. (123111)
Walgreen’s will no longer accept military Tricare
Effective January 1, 2012, Walgreen’s pharmacies will no longer accept military Tricare insurance for prescriptions. Apparently it is in a contract dispute with Tricare. Wow! (123011)
Army to start cutting force in spring, perhaps April 2012
The US Army intends to start cutting its force level as early as spring 2012, probably during April. It will begin by cutting back its non-commissioned officer (NCO) force starting at staff sergeant and above. This is due to the requirement set by SecDef Gates directing the Army to reduce its force by 27,000 by 2015. In the past, I had been reporting that the directive was to reduce the force by 50,000. A Military.com report of December 30, 2011 confirmed that the Army will reduce its force by 50,000 over the next five years, I guess through 2016-2017. So it looks like they’ll be half-way there by 2015. (123011)
Might Iraq break ties with the US, create a civil war, become a sectarian tyranny?
Final Haditha trial scheduled to start January 4, 2012
Iran says easy for it to close Strait of Hormuz
Iran's navy chief Habibollah Sayyari told Iran's English language Press TV, published on December 28, 2011, "Closing the Strait of Hormuz for Iran's armed forces is really easy ... or as Iranians say it will be easier than drinking a glass of water … But right now, we don't need to shut it as we have the Sea of Oman under control and we can control the transit.” He might be correct and how easy it would be to close the Strait. The Strait is only 34 miles wide. However, it will be next to impossible for the Iranian navy to keep it closed very long. Iran’s problem would not be confined to the strong American military presence in the form of at least one Carrier Strike Group and one Amphibious Ready Group with over 2,000 Marines embarked, along with a strong US presence remaining in Kuwait. It would also be with its Gulf neighbors. The problem for all Allied countries’ militaries would be surface-to-surface missiles launched against them from Iran itself. No doubt these would have to be neutralized. Iran also has an Air Force that can harass, and air superiority and suppression of air defense systems would no doubt have to be accomplished as well. All this would require attacks against Iran’s military and command and control systems. Iran has made such statements in the past and done nothing The same is expected of this one. Iran did hold a naval exercise in the area recently which is not uncommon. During this exercise it practiced dropping mines in the exercise area. (122811)
US Patriot missiles stopped in Finland on ship bound for China
Finnish authorities found 69 Patriot air defense missiles and 160 tons of explosives on the British flagged merchant ship Thor Liberty on December 22, 2011. The ship left Emden, Germany with the missiles on board, marked as firecrackers. They were poorly stored on open pallets instead of in containers. It is not yet clear whether the ship was to stop anyplace else on her way to China. The Germans say they sold the missiles to South Korea, and thus far Finn inspectors seem to agree. They have sold older models to the Koreans before. However, that the explosives and missiles were not properly packed and that Finnish authorities had not been asked to approve the transport of those through Finland appear to be illegal in accordance with Finnish law. (122311)
War in 2012 --- Cyberwar with China likely
US warns Iran --- try to assemble a nuke and we will stop you
SecDef Panetta warned Iran during a CNN on December 19, 2011 interview that if the US learns Iran is assembling a nuclear weapons, “we will take whatever steps are necessary to stop it.” Also during a CNN interview, General Martin Dempsey, CJCS, warned Iran, "My biggest worry is they (Iran) will miscalculate our resolve … Any miscalculation could mean that we are drawn into conflict, and that would be a tragedy for the region and the world … We are examining a range of options … all options on the table … I am satisfied that the options that we are developing are evolving to a point that they would be executable if necessary.” Estimates range from 1-3 years for Iran to have the bomb. (122211)